Fall is heating up and I’m not talking about foliage.
An October surprise? Gallop is reporting that among 2012 Presidential election voters, Romney is gaining with 52% of the vote over Obama’s 45%. This is not surprising considering the three strong debates from the Romney/Ryan ticket over the past couple of weeks. The public had the chance to evaluate both Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan without the filter of the main stream media and numerous polls reflect their impression. In addition, the devastating debate performances by both Obama and Biden helped clarify the differences between the two teams. This change in polling is not unexpected.
In Pennsylvania, Susquehanna Polling and Research released the results of its polling data showing Romney taking the lead in Pennsylvania. The same polling report also shows Republican Senate Candidate Tom Smith, with two point lead over his rival, incumbent Democrat Senator Bob Casey, Jr. Some Philly politicos have been breaking out the champagne over this poll result. I remain cautiously optimistic at this point, as it is only data from one poll. I will look for more polling data to see if this was simply an outlier poll or the beginning of a trend. Real Clear Politics labels the presidential race in Pennsylvania as a ‘Toss Up’. I agree with this assessment and don’t have enough data to comfortably make a general prediction at this time.
Let me know your thoughts on the national presidential race and/or the Pennsylvania Senate race.
Dick Morris proclaims ‘Pennsylvania is the new Ohio‘. It is possible to lose Ohio if you carry Pennsylvania and still win. Pennsylvania holds 20 electoral college votes compared to Ohio’s 18 votes. It is mathematically possible for a Romney/Ryan win if they pick up PA and lose OH. As Morris points out, the Obama campaign has a very light advertising presence, then again so does Romney’s campaign. I catch far more Senate candidate commercials than Presidential commercials on the rare occasions I’m watching the TeeVee.
Angus Reid Public Opinion Poll has Obama ahead of Romney in Pennsylvania – 48 percent Obama to 39 percent Romney – a 14 point spread. It also reports incumbent Senate Candidate Casey, JR with a 6 point lead over the Republican candidate, Tom Smith.
GOP SuperPAC poll has Smith and Casey, JR tied at 43 percent. No crosstab data was released.
Let Freedom Ring via Pulse Opinion Research conducted a survey of 1,000 likely voters shows incumbent Obama holding a 48 percent to 44 percent lead over Republican candidate Mitt Romney. Incumbent Casey, Jr holds onto a thin 47 percent to 46 percent lead over Republican Senate candidate, Tom Smith.
All polls outside of election day should be scrutinized carefully. These polls have broad ranging results and can kink up the predictions of PA election tea leaf readers. It boils down to a ground game of GOTV in Pennsylvania The successful candidate will be the one who is more successful in turning out voters on election day. While election fraud is a serious concern, I worry that local right of center political groups are focusing too heavily on poll watching and not so much on GOTV drives.